Catholic Church, Rev. Southall and the Adoration Cult

In past weeks, as if by design, supposed pals, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress, have turned their presidential campaigns on, each other. This may surprise political watchers a bit, because ordinarily the two, who had wined and dined closely and possibly shared nights in each other’s homes and bedrooms having political meetings, would be expected to demonstrate restraint in unselling each other, since political campaigns, are now almost about insult-trading, including in climes considered decent. But both are throwing even kitchen sink, and things may get ugly and dramatic in days ahead.

No doubt, both see the other person as the real competition, though Asiwaju acknowledged in his tirade against Atiku for playing tribe politics, that three of them, adding Peter Obi of Labour, to the front row, are in the race to succeed Buhari as President. Evidently, both Atiku and Tinubu didn’t initially see Obi as big-enough threat, because of the bitty nature of his platform; his party, support base et all. The conventional wisdom is that a party with potential to win national elections, must have a semblance of national structure, the support base, must be all-inclusive, containing all shades of humanity as well as having heavyweight donors, whether in power, or outside of it.

In all of these, Obi seems to struggle, though things are looking brighter than months back, when he was basically existing on Twitter. Now, his name features among everyday folks for vote mention, though he isn’t too well-rated in the areas of depth, originality of ideas and communication capability. Among the leading three, he is still the David, against two Goliaths of Nigerian politics, but religious factor is beginning to play well for him in churches, in the South West. When prayer points are raised for Nigeria and 2023 election, in some services I have attended in recent weeks, the oblique allusion to him, even when his name isn’t directly mentioned, as the one God should choose for the church and country, is unmistakable. And you can’t miss the energetic amen that always follows the supplication that it should be the turn of a child of the Kingdom, a coded phrase for a Christian, as President of Nigeria, next year.

Certainly, Atiku and Tinubu are not missing out on this development, considering both are desperate and throwing everything into the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, when everybody seems to be coming out of the starting block at the same time and there is no Buhari, the mini-god of the North on the ballot, though disputable records claimed he lost the 2019 poll to Atiku, despite his North-directed populism.

Atiku and Tinubu are also masters of election calibration. They work on the nuances bit by bit, though they still come up short on occasions, like the failed Osun mission for Tinubu, despite the retention of think tanks for years working on their various political projects. That is why both are usually celebrated as political tacticians. Even in off-season, they keep their teams. I remember Alhaji Garba Shehu, before becoming Buhari’s spokesperson, (obviously donated by Atiku after he joined Buhari to chase Jonathan away), was a staple at Atiku Media Office in Jabi, Abuja, for years.

On a particular day, while visiting for a professional reason, the place was like a feast and I was told, it was always so. Asiwaju can even be said to be deeper, in the engagement of his team. I know there is a team of lawyers, Senior Advocates to be precise, permanently strategizing for him. With a snap of fingers, he can get them to court for his political assignments. So, both Atiku and Tinubu are engaging enough, to know the Obi phenomenon isn’t a political textbook case. Except they really go after him with sinking facts, attacking the Labour candidate on some grounds, especially youth-adoration and Christianity-connection, would backfire spectacularly for them, especially Tinubu who threw the Christian support away in the South, by ignoring probables belonging to the faith, from the North, who were lined up for him, to make a running mate choice from.

By choosing a Northern Muslim, whether Kanuri or Fulani, Tinubu simply made a play for North’s vote, possibly with the cold calculation that Southern Christians, particularly those of South West, (since the mostly Catholic South East and South South are gonna go for Obi massively), had never cared and would still not bother this time, about representation for their faith in Aso Rock. The Shettima selection blowback obviously caught his strategies off guard and while he tries to fix the deep sentiment running against his joint ticket among Christians in his South West base, including trying to promote the obviously-inconsequential Lagos CAN chairman to national ecumenical relevance, Tinubu appeared to have correctly read his chances as another Northern candidate, hence the decision, to go after his friend and business partner of decades, mocking his regular Dubai parade. And when Atiku made his lame identity politics gaffe, Tinubu and his team quickly jumped on it, to further create more openings for the former Lagos governor in the space he is contesting with the ex-VP, while at the same time, appearing as an iconoclastic nationalist. Since the first salvo, there has been no let between them.

Tinubu can play pan-Nigerianism the much he wants, but it is clear he was made the presidential candidate by the North, through the 14 APC governors who stuck their neck out for a Southerner to replace Buhari on the party’s ticket. Even the renegade from Kogi, Yahaya Bello, eventually joined the choristers. And the Northern representatives in the South-for-President ensured it was their choice that emerged, after the scaremongering that Osinbajo would “redeemised” the country if elected President, made Tinubu the front runner for North’s consideration, despite the misgivings about his supposed arrogance. There is also the not-too-silent report of heavy monetary inducement. In all, all ended well for North, landing the two strongest candidates, on paper, for the presidential contest.

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Tinubu, of course, is expecting North to elect him, with votes from the South West, coming as a make-weight, as it happened for Buhari in 2015, against Jonathan, a minority Southern Christian. Of course, the dynamics are different now. North, ever greedy for political power at the zenith, has another illustrious “son”, maybe not a MVP like Buhari in the contest and even while any Northerner will do for his people, against a Southerner, Atiku is definitely not just any Northerner. Like Buhari, he is a Myetti Allah patron and definitely pro-North, though without the Buhari overdo.

So, Tinubu is running this one against a homeboy who is also a local hero. A senatorial candidate on APC platform told me most of them from the North are supporting Atiku and if he wins without a majority in the senate, they will just decamp! Surely, Asiwaju has every reason to batter Atiku beyond recognition for the North to substitute the ex-VP for him. And he would really have to make Atiku look unelectable to the North and the rest of Nigeria for the Lagos strongman not to end in third position, behind Atiku and Obi, in whatever order. And because Tinubu and North know that none of them, would show fidelity to whatever political agreement now, the trust line is going to be thin, in the next three months or so.