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In April 2023, the National Population Commission will conduct the long awaited population and housing census. By all means, the commission has been non-relenting in its clamour to deliver a fully digital exercise. ADETOLA BADEMOSI looks at the efforts so far put in place by the government to achieve this.
Nigeria is set to conduct its population and Housing Census 17 years after the last which at the period was widely contested. Ideally, census should be conducted every ten years, meaning the exercise should have been held seven years ago but for political will, funding, among other factors.
The need for a credible and non-contestable census cannot be overemphasised especially as it helps the government plan for its citizens.
Ironically, government plannings are based on projections as the country’s actual population is not known.
With, the lack of a comprehensive and detailed data on its population, there will be lack of accurate demographic, social, and economic growth indicators, which hamper policy implementation in Nigeria.
Currently, Nigeria live population is projected to be 222million and according the United Nations the overall population of the country will reach about 401.31 million by the end of the year 2050.
This bolsters the need for the conduct of a credible census and to avoid past mistakes, the National Population Commission (NPC) resolved to conduct a fully digital census.
As part of its moves to delivering this, the Commission commenced the Enumeration Areas Demarcation (EAD) exercise of the 774LGAs across the country.
EAD a Pre-census mapping
EAD is the process of dividing the entire country into smaller units with clearly defined and identifiable boundaries, called Enumeration Areas (EAs).
This is done in such a manner that there is no overlap or gap between them. The EAs so produced becomes the assignment map which determines enumerator’s workload during Censuses and Surveys.
It is an area which an enumerator will effectively cover without any omission or duplication during a census or sample survey.
The EAD for 2023 Census is the fourth time pre-census mapping was carried out prior to a census in Nigeria, the others being for the 1973, 1991 and 2006 Censuses.
However, the Commission said the 2023 Census EAD is unique because it was the first time, the entire country was demarcated using Geographic Information System (GIS) methodology.
Similarly, the exercise for Census 2023 started with a Pilot Phase from the 1st to 11th of December 2014 at Akoko SouthEast LGA in Ondo State.
Despite the initial plan to execute the EAD over a 3-year period, it went on for 7 years due to inadequate timely funding especially at the inital stage.
But towards the end of 2019 when more funds were released by the Federal Government the pace of the exercise accelerated from Phase 11 to Phase 17 spanning a 10-month period until completion in November 2021.
The entire EAD exercise was therefore completed in 18 Phases.
According to the Commission’s Chairman, Hon. Nasir Isa Kwarra, the EAD, aside ensuring total coverage during censuses, helps in providing a basis for checking the accuracy of the data thus obtained, and permits an oversight to be spotted quickly.
He stressed that the conduct of any successful census must necessarily begin with, and be based on functional maps produced during the EAD.
“This makes it possible to locate the population to be enumerated and their dwelling units accurately and correctly access the total workload, ensure complete coverage, plan adequately for monitoring and supervision of field activities, and graphically display the final result for better understanding. Thus, the success of the 2023 national population and housing census enumeration hinges on the success of the EAD,” he said.
Delivering a census different from 2006?
The Commission had on several engagements with stakeholders assures that it would in April 2023, deliver Nigeria’s first Digital Census to increase the acuracy of data.
For the Census, it said electronic forms hosted in Personal Digital Assistant devices will be used to capture information on all buildings, households and persons in the Enumeration Areas (EA).
“The field operations for the next census will begin with the building and household listing as usual but digital maps will be fetched online as against carrying paper maps as of old, therefore making the entire process paperless.
“The output of the house numbering and household _ listing exercise undergoes validation by matching some key parameters including number of buildings, building uses,” says Kwarra in one of his engagements with stakeholders.
Recall that the 2006 census outcome in Nigeria was deeply controversial as the figures were said to have been outrageously doctored.
But, the NPC boss had hinted that the forthcoming exercise will see to the modification of census questionnaires from 2006.
According to him,the development of questionnaires had allowed for data collected to be useful for planning while also stressing the need for census data to be comparable and compatible with previous Censuses and other data produce by other statistical agencies in the country.
“The Census uses the current 2006 classifications where applicable but reviewed them to reflect changes in the Nigerian society. Where there were no 2006 classifications, Census-specific classifications have been developed and are reviewed prior to each test,” he explained.
Also, he said the recruitment and training modalities will be a major deviation from the old order.
“A recruitment strategy is designed for an e-recruitment with a training plan that leverages greatly on technology as training modalities adopted include virtual, self-learning and physical learning.”
Trial census
To test the various methodologies put together in preparation for the census, the Commission in June, 2022, held a trial census alternatively known as “census dress rehearsal”.
According to Kwarra, the trial is another key preparatory activity for the Census. It is a process in which all census operations are tested in a detailed and comprehensive manner.
“This takes place as a matter of best practice about a year to the actual census date to assess the different scenarios that may be presented during the main census,” says Kwarra while declaring open commencement of the trial census in June.
The trial census was expected to test all aspects of census operations, from planning to implementation including logistics arrangement and management, questionnaire design and format, training procedures, fieldwork operations, publicity, payment system, data processing, data tabulations and analysis.
A total of 7,718 EAs were selected solely to test run suitability and readiness for the actual census in 2023.
He was however, careful to stress that data generated during the exercise will not be used to arrive at figures for the 2023 census.
“For the avoidance of doubt, the Trial Census is not the actual enumeration of persons for the 2023 Population and Housing Census. In other words, the outcome of the Trial Census will not form the basis of the 2023 Census.
“ Data generated during the Trial Census will not be used to arrive at figures for the 2023 Census, which is going to be zero based and from information collected in April 2023,” he stressed.
At a retreat post-trial census, theme: The 2024 trial census: Lessons Learnt and Strategies Towards a Successful Census, Secretary to the Government Of the Federation, Mr. Boss Gida Mustapha said lessons learnt from the exercise will shape the planning and implementation of the 2023 Population and Housing Census project.
Above all, the NPC Chairman said the trail census would above all, help assess the quality and the usefulness of the Enumeration Area (EA) maps that had been created, determine the possible demographic as well as geographical changes that might have occurred in the EAs carved between 2016-2018 and their implications for census taking.
Others, he said, include, determining the feasibility of uploading EA maps on the census app for house numbering and household listing as well as population enumeration, determining the correlation between EAD estimated population and the pre-test enumerated population, determine the requisite educational qualification for the 2023 census’ enumerators, among others.
Security concerns
One question that has continued to pop up in the discussions surrounding conduct of the Population and Housing Census is the insecurity challenge being experienced in the country.
The Commission had on several occasions allayed fears stating that it has put in place measures to address security threats.
Precisely, on 7th, February 2023, the Commission inaugurated the 2023 Population and Housing census security and logistics committee.
At the meeting, the National Security Adviser (NSA), Major General Babangana Monguno said the security situation in the country no doubt was a concern, hence the need for proactiveness by security agencies.
In his words:”The planning and conduct of a gigantic programme such as the census will no doubt come with its challenges in terms of security and logistics arrangement.
“Most prominent is the issue of insecurity arising from banditry, kidnapping, armed conflicts, terrorism, insurgency and other violent crimes which poses a major challenge to the census exercise.”
However, he said with coordinated synergy by the Committee, the safe movement of personnel and materials before, during and after the census will be guaranteed.
To further provide a robust security and logistic architecture, the NSA said the Committee will be replicated in all the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory and in the 774 Local Government.
The Census exercise just like the general elections is an exercise that Nigerians look forward, it is hoped that the Commission after all efforts, resources it invested, will eventually deliver on its promise for a credible digital census.
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