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As the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) begins the presentation of Certificates of Return to governors-elect today in Abuja, ISAAC SHOBAYO, GODWIN OKONKWO, OLAKUNLE MARUF examine the factors that led to their emergence in the March 18 governorship poll held in 28 states.
As aggrieved candidates file petitions before election tribunals over the results of the governorship poll, more details have emerged on key issues and factors that influenced the poll held on March 18 in 28 states across the country. A survey conducted by Mid-week Politics indicated that the dynamics varied in a number of the states due to local peculiarities. Nevertheless, there were cases of surprises, upsets and disappointment for the major political gladiators. The dust raised by the conduct of the general election is still pervasive across the country. Much of the ripples is a fallout of the poll because every politics is local, so most Nigerians are grappling with the realities of the outcome. While some are angry, disappointed and even depressed by the outcome, condemning the umpire, INEC, the system and the process, others are joyful and praising God.
Devastated by the outcome of the elections in their states, some candidates and their parties have rejected the results due to alleged irregularities. Some flash points during elections included Benue, Plateau, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kano, Rivers, Lagos, Oyo, Enugu, Abia, Edo and Delta, where the incumbents either managed to survive onslaughts from rival camps or were humbled in the bid to have their anointed candidates carry the day. But, the exceptions included Oyo, Lagos where the incumbents only sought re-election in their states.
BVAS controversy
There were fresh issues over Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) deployed for the election, which was rescheduled from March 11 to 18; to enable the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) re-configures the machines. There were reports of armed gangs swooping on polling units to snatch BVAS and destroy the equipment. Under the Electoral Act 2022, the commission is empowered to cancel the results of election, where polling is disrupted, with observers claiming some politicians took advantage of the lacuna in the law to cause violence in places regarded as the strong base of their opponents during elections.
Primordial issues
According to findings, issues of regional affinity, ethnicity and religion tilted the voters in most of the states, where the governorship poll was held. Some non-state actors, mass-based ethnic and religious groups acted as mechanisms to drive the political process and campaign for specific candidates and parties. The trend triggered serious problems and crises between Christians and Muslims in some states like Plateau.
Benue
Despite the façade of leading the PDP group of five governors in their campaign for equity, fairness and justice in the party, Governor Samuel Ortom had confronted a tempest at the home front in the election, particularly over the issue of governance. His critics claimed he failed to offer a purposeful and focused leadership in his eight years of being in Government House Makurdi. Consequently, the election was seen as a sort of referendum on his administration by voters. His other sore points included salary arrears of civil servants and unpaid pension and gratuity, as well as accumulation of debts. In addition, he has a frosty relationship with other PDP chieftains from his state, who often accused him of treating them with disdain.
These issues were said to have provided ammunition for the main opposition APC in the dogged effort of the Catholic priest, Reverend Father Hyacinth Alia, who had to overcome several hurdles to secure the ticket of APC. The governor-elect corrobated some of the issues that led Benue voters speaking with their votes against Ortom and the candidate of PDP. According to Alia, “Our State, Benue, needs a total reset! Governance in our State has hit a historic low. This election is a mandate to reform & recalibrate governance in Benue. We need all hands, all good and ready hands, to be on deck. We need men and women whom the spoils of office cannot buy. We will clear the backlog of arrears of salaries, and pensions and gratuities, resettle our IDPs in their ancestral homes, address persistent insecurity challenges and set the stage for a prosperous Benue. We need to set the foundations for a strong economy.”
Abia
The issue of zoning of the office of governor among the three senatorial districts in Abia State largely influenced the election. The outgoing governor Okezie Ikpeazu was accused of trying to subvert the provisions in what the stakeholders called the Abia Charter on Power Rotation and Zoning in the choice of his successor. This led to the bitter opposition to the manoevring by Governor Ikpeazu that PDP should retain power in his senatorial district against the spirit of zoning. Apart from the Obedient Movement embraced as the veritable vehicle to effect change, the people were in sync with the bid by Dr Alex Otti who ran under the platform of LP to guarantee power shift to another senatorial district.
Plateau
Part of the dynamics that shaped the election in Plateau State was ethno-religious. Having lost the ambience of a serene and peaceful state, due to ethno-religious strife, Plateau usual turns into a major battle ground at general election. Mutual suspicion on the grounds of religion, ethnic affiliation and indigeneship gained ascendancy at the threshold of this year’s poll. More often than not, the fight takes the form of the locals versus non-natives.
In the buildup to the poll, some stakeholders in Plateau had accused the administration of Simon Lalong of being pro-far north in the scheme of things, hence the battle to stop the candidate of the governor from succeeding him in office. The preponderance of the votes APC received during the election was believed to have come from the Christian community, even though the leaders had vowed to rally Christians to vote against the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of APC. The governor is the Director General of the APC presidential Campaign Council for the 2023 elections. There were also allegations of a lacklustre performance by the APC administration in the state, and that appointments were skewed against the natives.
The election turned out to be an ego war among three musketeers as they explored all the possibilities to justify their relevance in the politics of the state. Senator Dariye refused to align with his political associates, Governor Simon Lalong, and threw his weight behind the candidate of LP, Dr. Dakum. Former Governor Jang, on the other hand, supported the governor-elect, while Lalong, who wanted to prove his status, threw his weight behind Yiltwada.
Adamawa
The state is currently the cynosure of eyes owing to the hire wired brinkmanship trailing the conduct of the governorship election and certain local peculiarities. It is the home state of First Lady, Hadjiya Aisha Buhari, as well as PDP presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The senator representing Adamawa Central, Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahamed (Binani) of APC is pitched against PDP candidate, Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri. She had a tough time becoming the candidate of APC, because of the caliber and pedigree of other contenders for the APC ticket, just as she is involved in a historic battle to emerge as the first elected female governor in the country in a largely patrilineal contest.
Rivers
Show of force and raw political power by the leading political gladiators contributed in swaying the votes in Rivers. A combination of Machiavellian tactics and near subterfuge took the centre state, resulting in dire consequences, including issues bordering on BVAS snatching and destruction of electoral materials, as well as other security breaches. Rivers that hitherto churned out about a million votes at general election only recorded less than 500, 000 votes raising questions about the integrity of past polls’ conducted in the state. PDP candidate, Similanayi Fubara polled 302, 614 votes while his closet rival, Tonye Cole got 95, 274 votes; The candidate of SDP, Magnus Abe, scored 46,981 votes to take the third position, Beatrice Itubo of the LP scored 22,224 votes to come fourth. Besides, it was alleged that the ruling party committed certain malfeasances to tilt the votes.
The winners, Siminilayi Fubara, Governor Nyesom Wike and members of the PDP are rejoicing, but they seem to be rejoicing alone and with a great degree of unease as the losers. First, the generality of the populace in the state are standing by watching while the others, members of the opposition parties, including APC, SDP, LP and NRM have vehemently rejected the election result and have vowed to challenge it at the tribunal.
Zamfara
A major casualty of the election in Zamfara State is Governor Bello Matawale. He lost his quest for re-election to the PDP candidate, Dauda Lawal by 311, 976 votes to 377, and 726 votes, respectively. Protracted intraparty crisis in APC had weakened the structure of the party over the years with many of its main stakeholders defecting to PDP. Sadly, the state has been one of the hotbeds of bandits, who had almost made the state ungovernable at a time. There is still much bitterness in Zamfara APC before and after the election. An observer tweeted on the development, “Matawalle came to power without sweat, but before the crows, he jumped to APC. Now, he has been sacked by the party he left.’ Some of his utterances against PDP that God should punish him if he leaves PDP.
Kano
The state recorded the greatest political upset in the election, as stakeholders in the ruling APC in the state had to pay the electoral price for ego. Governor Abdullahi Ganduje and his party chieftains could not redeem the APC at the election after losing the first election on February 25 because of intraparty feud and unfriendly disposition towards opposing political parties.
Sokoto
Apparently, PDP went into the election in Sokoto State with crevices created by a disputed governorship primary. Its loss in terms of followership became the gain of the main opposition APC, as its governorship candidate, Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto triumphed at the poll against that of PDP, Saidu Umar Ubandomna, who is a former secretary to the state government. The governor-elect was a deputy governor to outgoing Governor Aminu Tambuwal. He had lost the same race to Tambuwal as APC candidate in the 2019 election.
Oyo
Factor of incumbency based on achievements, sectional sentiments across zones, unholy alliances and undercuts were among the dynamics that shaped the election.
The initial flared emotions orchestrated by the opposition against Governor Seyi Makinde’s bid for re-election soon melted following fresh political alignments and alliances that dovetailed into the week of the election.
Cry of marginalisation, coupled with agitation by a few leaders for a better deal across zones became loud. An attempt by some forces to fan the embers of religion was diffused by influential groups and individuals.
The other critical undercurrent that manifested in the election concerned the circumstance that culminated in the emergence of APC governorship ticket. Lots of APC chieftains and members were highly emotive on the issue even at the eve of the election.
Lagos
Part of the fallouts of the presidential election in Lagos was the emergence of a semblance of renaissance. It became a catalyst in galvanising the electorate along ethnic and regional attachment, alignment and sentiment. Leading lights in PDP, APC and LP found it expedient to exploit primordial sentiments to gain vantage position for their candidates, but with the consequent backlash of political intolerance and frightening tension. The opposition LP claimed its supporters and admirers were disenfranchised by the ruling APC in areas LP regarded as part of its strongholds in Lagos. PDP leveled a similar accusation against the APC.
Enugu
In Enugu, the heightened political atmosphere before and after the election followed the need by the electorate to secure the state for LP bid after winning the February poll in the state. The urge was further strengthened by a coalition of political forces to dismantle PDP structures that had governed Enugu in about 24 years of civil rule. As the former capital of the defunct Eastern Region, Enugu was considered by LP promoters as pivotal to the presence and expansion of the party in the entire South-East.
With the outgoing governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi having lost his bid to go to the Senate and the state falling into the hands of LP in the presidential poll, securing the governorship seat became uppermost in the subconscious of the people, especially LP faithful. However, the outcome of the March 18 elections became mired in controversy with claims and counter-claims by LP and PDP on the outcome. The three candidates in the centre of the conflict were Honourable Chijioke Edeoga (LP); former Minister, Mr Frank Nweke of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and a business mogul, Mr Peter Mbah of the PDP, who eventually triumphed in the tug of war, five days after the election was held.
Kaduna
The wish of outgoing Governor Nasir El-Rufai to have an anointed candidate as governor-elect met a stiff challenge from the PDP. Division along the lines of religion and ethnicity is more pronounced. However, an impressive record of performance of the governor played out in the poll.
Nasarawa
Governor Abdullah Sule of APC eventually secured a second term in office after a grueling battle, following the LP serious incursion that secured the state for the party in the February poll.
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