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Among the series of attacks carried out on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2022, four of them happened in Imo State within three weeks in December and another two was reported during the week. In view of this, Imo State-born associate professor of Comparative Politics, Conflict and Strategic Studies in Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Dr Iwu Hyacinth, speaks with IMOLEAYO OYEDEYI on the security situation in the state as well as the critical negative roles that insecurity and vote-buying will play in the general election if not systematically addressed.
You are from Imo state and speaking on the spate of attacks that enveloped the state in 2022, the state governor, Hope Uzodimma, and others chieftains of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state have insisted that the opposition parties, especially members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are behind the attacks…
(Cut-ins) That is an assumption that cannot be substantiated. It will interest you to know that some of the people who the security operatives arrested recently in connection with the latest attack in the state do not believe in party politics. They operate on a certain level of understanding that has been believed to mean it is either they don’t want elections to take place in the South-East or they want their own Biafra nation declared. So to me, I believe the youths behind the attacks are not guided at all ideationally. They only acted based on their tribal sentiments and prevailing agitation in the region. And mind you, the assailing youths are not many. They only employ guerilla tactics. I know that the state government and the ruling party may think the opposition parties are behind the attacks, because they have not come out to condemn any of the incidents, but this can’t be totally true. This is because the arrested suspects have so far confessed to carrying out the attacks and even said they are members of the Eastern Security Networks (ESN). So, it is clear that the guys do not belong to any political party. In Anambra State, the ruling party is APGA. In Enugu state, it is PDP, while in Imo State, it is APC and same for Ebonyi State. So you can’t say it is the parties asking their thugs to destroy federal structures.
But is it not possible for the boys to be used by the opposition parties in Imo State against the governor?
Yes, it is possible. But talking about the boys too, do they know that they are acting on behalf of the opposition? If you throw this to some of them, you will be surprised at what they will tell you. When I was doing my field study for one of the papers that I published on local conflicts and election violence, I discovered that the election days are the days that some people used to settle their scores, in order to attribute the outcome to election violence. In fact, empirical evidence emerged that such happened on Election Day and I too witnessed one. So, cultists can use that day to kill their rivals, knowing fully that the casualties will all be pinned on the election that was held.
But INEC has said that the increasing attacks in the country and vote-buying may mar the 2023 elections and the presidential poll winner from emerging at the first ballot. Hw true can this be?
Definitely, things like that are likely to happen and they will affect the election in a significant way. But looking at vote-buying and vote-selling, they are two different things. But there is no way the people will sell their votes so that it won’t affect a true winner from emerging. That is a fact. Like some time ago in Taiwan, vote-buying created serious electoral violence. Basically, it happens when people see their opponents offering money to the electorate to sell their votes. Some candidates will actually voice out against such and this may result in violence. So vote-buying can truly affect election outcomes. But it is not new in Nigeria to see people sell their votes. Though some people have used various concepts to describe vote-buying, it is not encouraging at all. If members of the opposition parties perceive it from the ruling party and they voice out, that is when it will lead to violence. But if there is cooperation among the agents of the parties at a polling unit within an area, it means that all of them will participate in the vote-buying.
But talking about attacks, will it be correct to say that attacks on the Election Day may prevent one of the presidential candidates from having certain thresholds across the states of the federation needed to be declared the winner of the poll?
If the attacks will prevent people from voting or if the attack will create fear in the people that will not make them go to polls, then, what you said may be true. And then, if the attack is against INEC and its equipment, this is another factor, because if that is done, there is nothing INEC can do, because a result must be sent, before it can conduct a rerun in a certain area. But one thing that is sure is that nothing will stop INEC. It is just that it will cause delay and more money, because if there is an attack somewhere and the commission did not carry out any election in the area, it will have to go back to the area after the attack to conduct a rerun with enough security and this will no doubt cost the commission extra budget.
The issue of voting-buying is very dangerous, because it is done subtly, because sometimes, it doesn’t take place right in the booth. The local politicians like the ward chairmen, women leaders, youth leaders and all do buy the votes within the corners and station their agents around the polling booths, who will then observe how the people are voting and who they are voting for. One question is how will INEC position the polling booths? How do they position it and make it a secret ballot? This is because if it is an open-secret ballot, it will not be suitable for us. But if they conceal it in a way, such that when a person enters it, nobody sees the person from any corner in the voting ground. Such way, the party agents will not be able to see who voted and who did not vote for their parties. And as such, they will be disappointed even with the money that they have prepared to offer to the people on Election Day.
Clearly protecting the polling booths will also give the electorate the free mind to vote their true conscience, because they won’t be under any pressure as no one will see where they have passed their thumb prints. It is just to tell you that the security operatives will have to do a lot of work. They must be patriotic enough to ensure the credibility of the poll. This is because part of the major problems that affected the credibility of past polls in the country is the compromise of the security agencies. It is already a custom that before any election begins at any polling unit in the country, the political parties would have given fat envelopes full of money to buy the security operatives. And in most cases, it is the party that offers the fattest envelope that the security men often favour during the course of the election. As an informed political scientist, I have been observing elections in the country for decades. And I can say with all confidence that such happened in all the past elections I have observed. In fact, the security men have seen this act as a legitimate one to be carried out by agents of the political parties. And this is despite them being paid both by INEC and the federal government for their efforts during the poll. I could remember that I have once been in a polling booth where the security operatives were openly collecting money from agents of the political parties and I boldly challenged it. But it nearly resulted in violence. So the issue of vote-buying won’t stop if the security operatives cannot demonstrate huge commitment towards protecting the values of democracy in the country.
But why do you think the commission has not been able to curb vote-buying in the past elections?
Well, this issue is a psychological thing. We can also say it is a cultural-political affair, even if some people have said it is an economic issue. The fact is once people feel that there is corruption everywhere, they will believe that practising the same corruption at their own small level is acceptable. So, I believe that loss of confidence in the political institution in the country is a big problem and it must be restored. So, I believe the electoral commission should embark on internal voters’ sensitisation across the national broadcast stations and even the traditional media as the election draws near.
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