The growing opposition to former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola’s bid to retain the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket for the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election is rooted in concerns about his popularity and political strength. Many APC members in the state believe Oyetola lacks the charisma and influence to mobilize the electorate and win the election. The reason for this is not far-fetched. While some argue that former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola should retain the ticket, others believe it’s time for a change. However, most APC members argue that Oyetola’s leadership has been detrimental to the party and that it’s time for a new candidate.
The APC’s choice of candidate for the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election is a crucial decision.
This sentiment is echoed by some APC stakeholders in Osogbo, who argue that the party should consider a candidate from the state capital to increase its chances of winning. They believe that Osogbo’s voting strength could neutralise the opposition’s votes, particularly those from the Ede area. This position of Osogbo stakeholders agitated Osun West Senatorial District members to renew their quest for equity and fairness in Osun State’s governance structure and also making demand for the Osun West Senatorial District to produce the next governor in 2026. This has made Ifeland party stakeholders, who have also reminded the party that they are tired of producing deputy governors and want to hold the steering of the state as number one. The Ife Zone of Osun State, which comprises party stalwarts like the APC chairman and former National Secretary of the party, Otunba Iyiola Omisore, has laid claim to the 2026 candidacy.
There have been many schools of thought on criteria for selection of who flies the party’s banner but chief in all the considerations is that the electoral history of Osun should be given deserving attention.
Since 1992, the state has had six civilian governors, with three from Osun Central, two from Osun West; Ede to be precise, and one from Osun East. This imbalance highlights the need for the APC to consider a candidate from another senatorial district.
In terms of suggestions for the APC leadership, it’s essential to consider a candidate’s popularity, experience, and electability. The party should also review the loyalty of potential candidates to the party, particularly in light of the 2022 state election results. With this, the APC can make an informed decision that will benefit the party and the people of Osun State. Because ultimately, the APC’s choice of candidate will significantly impact the party’s chances of winning the 2026 governorship election.
On findings on which senatorial district should produce the Candidate, some have suggested that the APC should consider candidates from Ile-Ife, given the zone’s strategic importance and the need for a candidate with a broad appeal. Ifeland, which is part of the Eastern Senatorial District that produced Governor Aregbesola, their quest for the next governor of Osun State is better appreciated than the quest of Osun Central Senatorial District. With a plethora of political heavyweights, including senators, ministers, and deputy governors, Ifeland has consistently demonstrated its leadership capacity.
Notably, Ifeland boasts of having the second-highest number of registered voters in the state, after Osogbo federal constituency. Moreover, Ifeland’s votes are considered more reliable due to the influential role of the Oni of Ife’s palace in the traditional settlement. This inherent structure lends more value to Ifeland’s votes compared to Osogbo’s cosmopolitan setting, where over 80% of residents are non-indigenes.
Historically, the Osun Central Senatorial District has produced three out of the six civilian governors, who have spent a cumulative fifteen years and five months out of a conceivable twenty-seven years and three months, leaving the other two senatorial districts to share the remaining eleven years and eight months. This imbalance underscores the need for a shift in the status quo. As the debate continues, potential aspirants, such as Senator Ajibola Basiru, from Osun Central Senatorial District that are being touted as alternatives to Oyetola, should be made to know that “obi alawe meta fun omo Iya meta, ko gbodo di ‘ja, ti koba si ojukokoro”, which can be roughly translated as “three gifts to three siblings shouldn’t cause feud, except there’s greed among them”.
The APC’s decision on its 2026 governorship candidate will undoubtedly shape the party’s fortunes in the election and beyond.
Also, in terms of bulk voting, Ifeland is better positioned to support its indigene with votes than Osogbo. Osogbo, on the other hand, is plagued by an unhealthy rivalry between Ọlọrunda Local Government, which could impact its voting patterns.
The quest for equity and fairness in Osun State’s governance structure brings to the fore the urgent need for the Osun West Senatorial District to produce the next governor in 2026. Along with the fact that the incumbent is from Osun West and that the zone has unwritten agreement with the party leaders in 2018 that after Oyetola’s tenure, it will be the turn of the district. This was reported that it would not only ensure victory at the polls but also promote a sense of equity and representation in the state.
Furthermore, the Osun West Senatorial District has been instrumental in determining the outcome of past elections. For instance, in the 2014 Governorship Election, the district played a crucial role in the victory of Governor Rauf Aregbesola and did the same during Governor Oyetola’s two elections. This demonstrates the district’s electoral significance and its potential to swing the outcome of the 2026 Governorship Election.
In addition, the Osun West Senatorial District boasts of qualified and experienced individuals who possess the requisite leadership skills to govern the state effectively. Some of such individuals are the Rt (Hon.) Adejare Bello, Alhaji Bola Oyebamiji, the Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), the immediate past deputy governor, Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi last Governorship Candidate of SDP who just joined the party, and his counterpart Prince Dotun Babayemi erstwhile PDP Governorship Aspirants that recently joined the party, Alhaji Tunde Rahman a senior special assistant to PBAT and few others who have been clued as a potential candidates.
The general opinion within the party and on the streets is for APC to increase its chances of winning the 2026 Gubernatorial Election. The party needs to be truthful to itself, prioritise the party’s and followers’ interests above group or sectional interests, make informed decisions, display determination and be strategic in the selection of its candidate for the 2026 gubernatorial contest and that the contest should be backed with warlike strategy.
Finally, the exercise came up with the summary of opinions, suggestions, and candidates recommendations:
1. APC should zone its candidacy to Osun West Senatorial District.
2. Ede Federal Consistency should not be considered, for obvious reasons.
3. Leaders must strategically select a candidate who embodies integrity, capacity, and competence, and has the clout to overshadow and oust the incumbent Governor Adeleke.
4. It is suggested that it is essential that APC leadership should avoid the mistake of the past and place collective interest above personal interest in picking its candidate for 2026 using the set criteria of the candidate’s popularity, experience, and electability and review of the potential candidate’s loyalty to the party, particularly in light of the 2022 state election results (see attached table of the rating).
5. The ideal candidate should possess the following qualities:
-Integrity and Competence: A proven track record of integrity, capacity, and competence to inspire
confidence in voters.
– Electability: The ability to deliver quantum votes from the
federal consistency and street for acceptability and popularity.
– Non-Controversial and Unifying: A candidate who is acceptable to the majority of party members, warm,
welcoming, and unifying to build consensus for the party. And can galvanise the generality of party members, who would be proud to work for him.
– Calm Temperament and Political Experience and Brave; a calm and composed individual with substantial political experience, ready to tackle the PDP’s tactics.
– Requires a person of integrity, capacity, competence and clout that can overshadow Governor Adeleke in comparison during the general election.
In conclusion, considering the historical imbalance, electoral significance, and the availability of qualified candidates, as enumerated in this write-up, it is only fair that the Osun West Senatorial District produces the next governor of Osun State in 2026. This would not only ensure equity and fairness but also promote unity and cohesion among the various senatorial districts in the state. Issues in this writeup are objectively collated and are germane if APC is serious to take over power in Osun State.
By Goke Stephen, A Political Analyst from Ile-Ife.
